Cruising Sailors Forum Archive

Interesting cyclone (TC 'Jasmine') in the Pacific right now

Besides making people nervous, even though it's a Cat 5, this looks like it's not going to create any real harm (Pacific is different from Atlantic cyclones, we have lots of water, and not much land for cyclones to run into), but I think this is interesting, just because of it's rarity.

Apparently, the thinking is that rather than having a single eye, that the cyclone had multiple eyes revolving around a centre axis.

From JTWC:
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 171.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
EAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A COMPACT AND HIGHLY
AXISYMMETRIC CIRCULAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE
MEASURING APPROXIMATELY 20 NM; HOWEVER, THE LAST FRAME SUGGESTS THAT
THE EYE MAY BE BECOMING CLOUD FILLED. A SERIES OF RECENT MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS A NEARLY UNIFORM RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
MINIMAL BANDING FEATURES OBSERVED ONLY IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE INFRARED EYE AND A 081746 SSMIS
IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW, WITH AN ENHANCED IR
SATELLITE PRESENTATION VERY SIMILAR TO THAT OF 12 HOURS PRIOR. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES SOUTH OF A
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. DESPITE SOME IMPINGEMENT OF OUTFLOW
ON THE WESTWARD AND POLEWARD SIDES EVIDENT IN ANIMATED SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST ON THE EQUATORWARD AND
EASTWARD SIDES. TC 10P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UP TO TAU 36
BEFORE IT GETS DEFLECTED EASTWARD BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS
IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND AS SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP SOUTH OF 24 DEGREES SOUTH LATITUDE. BY TAU
72, TC JASMINE WILL COMMENCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT), AND IS
EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH THE EXCEPTIONS THE GFS
MODEL WHICH BUILDS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND CAUSES A
CYCLONIC TURN AROUND THIS EXTENSION. AFTER TAU 72, GUIDANCE IS
BEGINNING TO SUGGEST THAT DURING ETT, THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
DECOUPLED AND BEGIN TO TRACK BACK TOWARDS THE EQUATOR. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN CONSENSUS TO COMPENSATE FOR THE GFS
SOLUTION, AND REFLECTS THE NORTHEASTWARDLY TURN AT TAU 96 AS NOTED
IN THE CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 31
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z.

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