I don't know if you can read this link from the NYT but it's an enlightening explanation on the state of our forecast services based on budget constraints. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/03/upshot/hurricane-joaquin-forecast-european-model-leads-pack-again.html?em_pos=small&emc=edit_up_20151002&nl=upshot&nlid=46902595&ref=headline