even if they disagree on intensity and track, they usually agree that there's something "out there" and whether it's likely to still be out there in a few days' time.
We got caught in 1973 . . . even after going to the local airport every day to get the current status on a TD "fizzling out" off the Bahamas. As soon as we cast off, it began to unfizzle. Right about this time of year, too. We were lucky enough not to drown -- or even suffer any damage beyond a smashed bottle of 151 Bacardi. Luckily, nobody struck a match or we'd have been toast.
Sadly, others fared less well in that storm.