We are taking Mirador south from Tacoma, WA (Puget Sound) to San Diego sometime in the next couple of days. This will be my fourth trip from Puget Sound to San Diego. Mirador is always ready to go to sea - so in mid-July when I decided it was time to go - I thought I would only have a few minor details to attend to.
You can read the story of the ever growing list of "minor details" needed to prepare an already well prepared and maintained boat to head to sea for a 1200 NM downwind trip at: http://www.svmirador.net/GettingReadyToGoAgain.htm
I've made significant improvements to Mirador's crew comfort features. The worst part of the trip from Cape Flattery to Point Conception is the 55 degree nights with a cold damp mist blowing in on a 10 knot apparent wind from astern. I can't stand that kind of weather any more - I have both an electric blanket and a 12V ambulance warming pad to wrap up in while sitting in the cockpit at night (the coldest part of the three prior trips was the middle of the day just north of the Golden Gate - 52 degrees - head wind, fog, mist...misery!) or during the day - I am going to be a warm comfy sailor!! My only crew will be my brother Jim. He has made the same trip in his Tartan 42 and single handed Caretta around Western Mexico.
We will be leaving Sunday the 29th or Monday the 30th. You can track Mirador's progress at Yotreps (http://www.pangolin.co.nz/yotreps/reporter_list.php) by looking for KI9NG (my HAM call sign) or Mirador. OR - you can go to www.svmirador.net and click on the link at the top of the home page - that will take you the YOTREPS tracking page for Mirador.
I will be updating the YOTREPS position about every six hours with some info about conditions.
I've got the HAM radio/email set up to get wind and wave (GRIB) forecasts every six hours - the forecasts use a model/wind prediction system (COAMPS) developed by the US Navy for near coastal weather prediction. It takes into account shore lines, headlands, capes...etc. The cool thing is that the wind predictions are for 13 mile squares so provide very detailed data - which is essential around Cape Blanco, Cape St George, Cape Mendocino, Pt. Arguello/Pt Conception -updated every three hours.
I've been watching and studying the GFS and COAMPS GRIB data compared to actual and it seems to be accurate or even overstates the wind a little. The forecasts look pretty solid for 72 hours and reliable for 96 hours.
We'll leave Neah Bay/Cape Flattery/the NW tip of the Continental US and stay about 20 - 40 miles (3 to 6 hours motoring) offshore. We'll keep heading south as long as we have 48 hours of good (easy?) weather ahead of us. If the 36 hour forecast starts looking iffy we'll start heading toward a port. If the 30 hour forecast looks "not so good" we'll head into port and wait until we have another 48 hour window of good weather. There is nowhere along the US west coast that Mirador is more than 30 hours (190 miles at easy motoring speed) from a good harbor if we stay within 40 miles of the coastline.
A Dufour 38.5 from my marina left Port Townsend last Friday evening (August 20) - they got to Newport, OR late afternoon Tuesday August 24 - never more than 12 knots of wind and had to motor the whole way. They left Newport early on the 25th and had a steady 25 - 30 knots from almost dead astern all the way to the Golden Gate on Friday morning.
you can read about COAMPS
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/web/home
and GRIB files (the data I receive)
http://weather.mailasail.com/Franks-Weather/Grib-Files-Getting-And-Using