reinforced what I believe. "In most storms they would have been turning NE but that one didn't". I remember sitting in the harbor in St. Thomas with Hurricane Hugo bearing down on us looking at the weather forecast every morning and night for a week prior to it getting to us. The last few days the storm would hook north and everyone would breath a sigh of relief and say "It's finely going north" only to be disappointed the next morning when it wobbled back on track for Saint Thomas. September 15, 1989 was my drop dead date. If the storm was still on track that morning I was heading to Culebra. As it turned out, after the morning weather report, everyone was heading to Culebra. I got up on deck and saw just about every boat in the harbor with someone on the bow pulling anchor. Most of them heading for Ensenada Honda. I right then changed my mind and went to a bay on the other end of ST. Thomas. The eye went over Culebra with gusts of 210 mph based on the islands airport anemometer readings. I missed the eye by about 35 miles. They say it was around 150 where I was. My point is that you don't risk your life and the lives of others on the roll of the dice. You make the most conservative decision which best protects the crew. I went to Brenner Bay because I didn't believe I could get a good enough spot to secure my boat in Culebra not because I knew where the storm was going. In that amount of time I could have made the run down to Venezuela but I had no guarantee that the storm wouldn't hook south and nail me down there. I would eventually have had the wind behind me and been on the right side of the storm and far enough away but I couldn't guarantee that to myself. That's why I found a hole and nailed myself to the ground. Once again IMHO.