Hey Tom,

Now showing a landfall out around Shinnecock... I would expect that trend to continue, but Cape Cod and the islands is still the place I wouldn't want to be...

There has been a consistent and considerable discrepancy between the 5-Day "Cone" forecast, and the "Ensemble Models" tracks - all of which place the storm much farther to the east ( I tried reading NOAA's explanation of what the Ensemble Models indicate, precisely, but my eyes started glazing over pretty quickly, where do they find the people who write that stuff? (grin))...

Could be famous last words, of course, but I'm guessing at this point that those on the Chesapeake will get off fairly easily, and here along the Jersey shore we'll have not much more than a typical strong Northeaster, though much faster moving, of course... I don't think I'm gonna have to try to run and hide up in the Catskills for this one...

Good luck to everyone in her path, but if I were E of LIS/Montauk, I'd be making major preps at this time...

best regards,

Jon