Hi Dan,
Yeah, I've been following that one, your scenario seems as likely as any... First thing I did was check the tides, and I too thought it strange he would try riding the ebb out at night at the start of such a trip, so I'd think your guess is very likely close to what happened...
These guys out of Monterey didn't make it much further... Only 30 miles SW of Monterey, damn, that 'Weather Window' must have slammed shut in a hurry... (grin) But at least there was no loss of life, or even the boat, thanks to the Coasties... Sounds like the crew on this one wasn't much more than excess baggage ...
"The one remaining person aboard the sailing vessel was unable to safely operate it by himself and was towed back to Monterey by a Coast Guard motor lifeboat crew."
Best regards,
Jon