hey Larry,

Just finished dropping the furling headsails on my boat. Normally I wouldn't do it this far in advance, but with the big NE blow we're expecting to begin tonight and continue for the rest of the week, I figured it might be now, or never... Damn, it's steamy down here, certainly FEELS like a hurricane might be on the way...

2 things are a bit spooky to me about this one... First, I just don't like the damn NAME of the thing... (grin) Last storm whose name bothered me was "Irene", and that turned out to be a pretty big one here, as well...

More importantly, however, is how eerily similar this one is shaping up to be a repeat of Sandy, even down to the same landfall on a Monday... The similarity in the conditions that might steer it into the coast, causing it to make a hard left turn this far north, is pretty striking... Interesting and very detailed analysis from a guy at Rutgers University here, I didn't watch the whole thing, but I think it's worth checking out for a bit:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=soMdbo4F3eY

What's strange about this one, is how widely the Euro Models vary from all the others at the moment... They have it taking a completely different track off to the NE and out to sea, no threat to land at all... I think their next update is around noon today, so I'll be curious whether the Euro model begins to fall more in line with the rest, as they were the first ones to accurately forecast the eventual path that Sandy took...

You're smart to move the boat and begin to prep today, sounds like 24 hours from now things are gonna start getting pretty nasty around here... That's what is most concerning to me here on the Jersey Shore, our beaches are gonna take a serious pummeling from the NE for a few days, in advance of the storm if it decides to come this way... Also, my decision to stay put here is already pretty much made for me now, the NE gale forecast in advance of Joaquin pretty much crosses the option of running up the Hudson at the last minute off the list, for me...

I'm still not too worried right now, however, I'm in a great hurricane hole right here, many of my neighbor's boats are already pulled for the winter, and as long as there's no breach in the barrier islands like there was in Sandy, I should be fine...

Good luck up where you are, and to everyone else who might be in its path, and best regards,

Jon