... with a Category 3-4 squatting right off Clarencetown, I'm afraid places like Long Island, Cat, and Eleuthera are gonna see terrible destruction from this storm... For any boats and sailors down there, there are precious few places to run and hide, especially for anything other than one with extreme shoal draft...

It will be interesting to see if, once again, the Euro model turns out to have been more correct from the beginning... With an overnight shift of the track back again to the E, the American models are shifting at least slightly into more agreement with the Euro, and the GFS now has it staying offshore...

From the NHC this morning:

"By 36 hours, Joaquin should begin to move faster toward the north as it comes under the influence of a deep-layer trough that cuts off over the southeastern United States. There have been big changes insome of the track guidance overnight, perhaps due to data from the synoptic surveillance mission flown by the NOAA G-IV jet for the 00Z model cycle. In particular, the GFS and UKMET have shifted eastward by several hundred miles in 3 to 4 days relative to their previous solutions. Overall for this cycle there has been a spreading out of the guidance envelope beyond 2 days, with a wide range of solutions shown. The HWRF and GFDL are the fastest to bring Joaquin north out of the Bahamas and still show a sharp westward turn taking the cyclone inland over the Carolinas in 3 to 4 days. The GFS has trended slower coming out of the Bahamas and now shows a track toward Long Island and southern New England in 5 days, with the
UKMET farther offshore. The latest ECMWF is still the slowest an farthest east with a track just west of Bermuda in 4 to 5 days. Given the large shift in some of the guidance, the NHC track has been adjusted just a little to the east and slower at days 3 through5, and now lies on the left side of the multi-model consensus and left of the GFS, UKMET and ECMWF solutions. Confidence remains very low in the eventual track of Joaquin and any potential impacts for the United States, and further adjustments to the NHC track may be needed later today."