from their failures in the 80's and 90's (anybody remember the Newton?) Their resulting product philosophies work well for a lot of "non-tech" people (like me.)

For example, Kristel and I took the plunge last summer and each got an iPhone. It was something of an experiment as I didn't know how useful this "tool" would be in our day-to-day lives. So far though, it's been good. For example, we're both working and have busy schedules and could never keep track of each other with things constantly changing. Now with Google Calendar and a coordinating app on the phones we work from one calendar and when we make a change or addition on a phone or computer it gets "pushed" to all devices.

Just last week we loaded an app for maintaining shopping lists the same way (yeah I know, it's trivial) but we were constantly calling each other to find out what was needed or if something had already been purchased. Now we work from one list in real time.

It's lots of stuff like that (I've probably got 20 apps on the phone) and the whole 'it just works' thing that makes market predictions like the one you cite a very real possibility.

I'm very curious to see how the iPad does.