Hey Dan,
The modern cruiser is pretty diligent about telegraphing their intentions, constantly updating their positions, broadcasting them to the world via sailing forums and blogs... All any local in that part of the world would have to do is obtain the list of waypoints that are passed around and treated as Gospel by cruisers in the NW Caribbean, or listen to the NW Caribbean Cruiser's Net every AM where boats underway report their positions and destination... Heading out around Cabo Gracia y Dios, all they'd have to do is listen to Chris Parker's WX broadcast, nobody makes a move until he says it's a Go, after all... Once given the green light by Chris, everyone heads for the same waypoints - probably using routes created on MaxSea of something days in advance, and running with autopilot interfaced to the route to ensure they don't deviate by more than a few meters - so I doubt it's too tough for the bad guys to find cruising boats traversing those waters... LOL!
I would guess, however, that an incident like that was probably more in the realm of a crime of opportunity... Drug or gun runners out doing their thing, just happen to come upon a tasty-looking cruising boat with only a couple on board, looks like easy pickings, why not?
Looking back upon it, I realize I was probably pretty fortunate to have gone completely unmolested during my little circuit of the NW Caribbean the winter before last. I sailed direct from Jamaica to the Bay Islands, however, I didn't want any part of mainland Honduras. Even Roatan and Utila, I was getting a bad vibe about the social/political tensions brewing there, and as beautiful as those places are, I doubt I'll ever return now... Takes a lot of the relaxation out of cruising, when you have to be constantly on guard about the security of your boat, and dinghy... Belize was the only place down there I really felt I could let my guard down a bit...
I don't know, still seems to me the simplest solution is to avoid those areas where piracy or crimes against cruisers are known to exist... Although there are no palm trees and pink sand beaches there, I think there's a lot to be said about cruising instead in a place like, say, Nova Scotia... where instead of having to lock up your boat and dinghy every time you venture ashore, the greater probability is being greeted by a local who points to a nearby pickup truck, and informs you the keys are always in it, and it's yours for the taking if you need to make a run to the nearest general store a few miles up the road...
Pic below is from Utila, Bay Islands, ashore from the anchorage known as "Burglary Bay"...
best regards,
Jon