Old fashioned, but I feel like it's having a friend that you know so well, you know when to trust and when not to. I find that I can read into what NOAA is forecasting and get a pretty good sense. Last summer a friend kept whipping out his I phone and showing me the wind app, with these arrows pointing in every direction with color-coded wind speeds, down to a quarter mile of area or less. All of this just left him expecting that to be true. It's still just a computer model. All that detail makes you depend on something too much. NOAA you take with a grain of salt and some years of experience. They're forecasting for a broad area: you get the general idea and then make your plans.