Hey Tom,

...seems to me there is a big distinction between an error due to a moment's inattention, exhaustion, whatever, and the conscious, deliberate, and astonishingly un-seamanlike decision he appears to have made... Of course, we know little of the story as of now, perhaps there indeed was the sort of dire emergency on board which led him to make such a desperate attempt, we may never know... However...

The guy literally had DAYS to plan his arrival, after all... He was likely trying to get in before nightfall, when he realized he wasn't gonna make it, proper seamanship would dictate slowing down or heaving-to, or going to Plan B. As bernie suggested, that could have been running off towards Royal Island/Spanish Wells for an arrival the next morning, or simply sailing further south down around Hole in the Wall, into the lee of the bottom of Great Abaco, and heading up in much smoother/protected waters towards the community of Sandy Point...

IMHO, these sort of situations are almost invariably the end result of a series of cascading failures or poor decisions made well in advance of the actual event... Just a hunch, of course, but I would guess that their reason for bailing out of the rally and making for the Bahamas likely holds the key to this tragedy... Might have been autopilot problems that contributed to crew exhaustion, or perhaps simple seasickness... Whatever, I'd bet that those people simply WANTED OFF THAT DAMN BOAT ASAP, and that sole desire really clouded their judgment, in the end...

One thing I've wondered, perhaps bernie can answer this... Are all the boats in the Rally required to carry paper charts for all the potential bailout spots between Norfolk and the BVIs? If the guy did indeed have the Explorer Charts aboard, with all their cautionary advice, his decision to attempt that cut seems even more unfathomable...

If I could suggest one lesson to be taken from this sad tale, it would be to reinforce the value of the tactic of heaving-to... Aside from being a practical strategy, it has the even more beneficial psychological effect, amazingly underrated by modern sailors as far as I can see, of being the equivalent of taking a deep breath... Had they simply hove-to that night, gotten some rest, etc - I'll bet upon assessing the conditions the following morning, they would have decided "No Way...", and made for an alternative landfall... Every time I've ever hove-to, I'm simply amazed by how everything changes, settles down, and relaxes the crew. It's a great pity this skipper apparently didn't consider it to be a viable tactic...

Frankly, however, I'm amazed this sort of thing doesn't happen with more regularity, today... The reliance upon and absurd confidence in modern electronic charting and navigation is truly frightening, I see people putting their faith in this stuff to an astonishing degree, and have gotta believe that the skipper's confidence in the accuracy of his waypoints, etc, certainly helped lead him to make his fatal decision...

finally, I've got to wonder how many of these rally boats have ever even run an inlet or cut before? Another rally boat - a Hallberg-Rassy - was seriously damaged when they bailed out at Oregon Inlet, the owner admitting they "are lucky to be alive". Seems they made the very poor choice of attempting the inlet in very poor conditions, when they might have continued down around Diamond Shoals, and hunkered down in the calmer conditions in the bight of Hatteras, or run for Beaufort, instead...

best regards,

Jon