http://www.wunderground.com/MAR/buoy/2011/10/13/44065.html

You can see that the wind was from the NE in the 20's all day with wave heights closer to 8 feet, and humidity was close or at 100%. In other words, he was sailing in a nor-easter and was getting beat-up out there. I assume he was headed south (based on Dave Gibson's sighting in the Hudson). Why anyone would set out down the NJ coast with a strong easterly in the forecast is beyond me; and running an inlet after dark (assuming not his home waters) in those conditions has me thinking he was desperate to bail out. Maybe fatigue or the pressure from unhappy crew (the admiral?) or some other issue.

If he was heading south, Tom Young's theory about not lining up the markers correctly is a good one. He might have had enough twilight-daylight to be using the beach and the part of the jetty that's above water as a visual reference, and not looking at the chart-plotter.